Will our eighth American Idol be flashy, soaring Adam Lambert or underdog popster Kris Allen? Looking to tonight's performance showdown and Wednesday's finale (Fox, both 8 ET/PT), we handicap the highs, the lows and the outlook for the final two, with reporting by Bill Keveney, analysis by Brian Mansfield and Ken Barnes, and comments from Idol judge Kara DioGuardi.
KRIS ALLEN, 23
Hometown: Conway, Ark.
Comfort zone: Creative reinterpretations
High point: Heartless. Written off by judge Simon Cowell, and probably many viewers, Kris stepped up and delivered the Idol equivalent of football's Immaculate Reception, transforming the Kanye West song into an acoustic folk-rocker. That single performance probably put him in the finale.
Low point: All She Wants to Do Is Dance. Kris' horn-infused approach to Don Henley's acerbic hit felt, as Kara DioGuardi put it, "like jazz-funk homework."
Judge Kara DioGuardi says: "Kris has this sincerity and honesty, especially in the emotional content of his music, that you really feel his heart and soul. There's something very compelling about that connection for the listener."
What Kris says his first album would be like: "A pop singer/songwriter kind of album. Just good music, something everyone would want to listen to."
Whom Kris would like to perform with: "Paul McCartney. I look up to him a lot — his songwriting ability, his singing ability. He's a really great musician."
Kris' favorite Idols: "Jordin (Sparks). She's one of the best that's come out of here. I definitely think Kelly (Clarkson)Clarksonis the queen of American Idol. She has done her thing for eight years now and she is really, really successful. I thought she was great when she won."
Working for him: America loves an underdog. Even more than Adam and possibly than David Cook, he's the most adept rearranger of familiar songs in the show's history. Instrumental skills on guitar and piano. Momentum from his showstopping version of Heartless. An unpretentious personality steeped in heartland wholesomeness. And he's the only alternative for the fiercely anti-Adam faction.
Working against him: His distant-second status (his season average on the Idol Meter is 44, compared with Adam's 69, and he has never been regarded as the leading contender). His more modest, less-showy vocal skills. His lack of a widely known and compelling back story. The widespread feeling that while Kris is a good singer and a great sleeper story, Adam is the more outstanding performer and deserving winner.
Commercial prospects: Idol showcases about half the qualities an artist needs to sustain a hit-making career. So the jury's still out on Kris' prospects beyond the show. He's still something of a blank slate. "I see no reason why he couldn't have a hit or two," Nathan says. "Will he be Shawn Mullins and have that one big hit and fade away? Or will he be a legitimate pop guy? There certainly will be enough of an audience, win or lose, that over the next eight to 12 months, he's going to have success. But how do you follow it?"
ADAM LAMBERT, 27
Hometown: San Diego
Comfort zone: Glamorous, theatrical rock
High point: Mad World. Bathed in blue light, Adam delivered the haunting melody of the Tears for Fears hit softly yet forcefully, channeling his dramatic energy into a flawless falsetto.
Low point: One. Adam began the U2 anthem by reminding viewers how beautiful and tender his voice can be. Within seconds, he also reminded them that for part of nearly every performance, he cares more about showcasing his upper register than he does about servicing the song.
Judge Kara DioGuardi says: "Adam has learned how to take what once you could characterize as dramatic singing and use that drama to fuel his performances so that you get this very distinct dynamic going on."
What Adam says his first album would be like: "Pop/ rock electronic. Something really contemporary, something that feels really new, something that feels like tomorrow as opposed to today."
Whom Adam would like to perform with: "Lady Gaga, Katy Perry and Madonna, who continues to be the next big thing."
Adam's favorite Idols: "Fantasia is a definite favorite of mine. She was raw, real. I was a big Kelly (Clarkson) fan. ... (David) Cook inspired me as a viewer because he was the first to take the competition into his own hands and was more of a strategist about it. He was just very smart and he gave me a lot of good ideas."
Working for him: A higher register that soars to Zeppelin-esque heights, a heart-rending falsetto and a rough-edged rock tone, all under near-absolute control. A sense of style, a degree of humility and a lighthearted swagger. The intelligence to plot his moves carefully, pick the right songs (most of the time) and rearrange them skillfully, resulting in a handful of the show's best performances ever, including USA TODAY Idol Meter's only 100-point score.
Working against him: Projections of overconfidence. The absence of all-American wholesomeness. An overdependence on his upper register that may have become tiresome. His status as a predestined favorite. A potential for going way over the top.
Commercial prospects: Elvis Presley had his haters; so did Prince and Elton John. So will Adam. That's not the worst problem in the world, given that Adam possesses "absolutely, unequivocally the best voice I've heard on Idol," says Marc Nathan, senior director of A&R research for Capitol Music Group, but it presents a challenge for radio programmers. He envisions Adam having a hit in the vein of Chumbawamba's Tubthumping, which sold a lot but didn't test particularly well with listeners. "Radio will play it until people say they're tired of hearing it." Five years from now, Nathan adds, "I think he's going to be on the equivalent of a Broadway stage."
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